Today was a small SOS day for SPY following yesterday's large BOW day and last week's huge SOS and BOW days. That tells me SPX is probably going to be stuck in a +/-30pt range for a few days. The door is still open for a test of 1880-1900 especially with mixed signals, but I favored 1900 not being touched based on historical odds of previous top/bottom retests and 1901-1914 has now been reached with some posd, so I favor 1940-1950 in the next few days.
If SPX holds the 1911 low in that scenario, the rally up to 1940-1950 would likely be an A wave ending Thu/Fri to be followed by a B wave retracement ending Mon/Tues back to the 1920-1930 price-volume s/r area followed by a C wave up to the very strong 1960ish s/r area ending Thu/Fri OPEX.
If SPX breaks below 1911 tomorrow, I think my projections would remain pretty much the same with maybe a 1-day delay if it is an EDT-like or choppy pattern down to 1901-1910 with subsequent sharp bounce. However, if 1900 is broken and we get a tepid 10-20 point bounce for 1-2 days, I'd possibly expect the final move lower to 1850ish into next Friday's OPEX. This week and next were the 2 most likely target weeks for a significant bottom based on my discretionary spending analysis, but I described how it was an extremely narrow signal with a more definitive spending break the following month making a bottom (or successful bottom retest) a reasonable possibility in the 1st 3 weeks of September instead. In any event, the favored projection is for a cascade lower to the 200dSMA and likely a little beyond but whether that occurs in 1 week or 1 month is unfolding. And, 1960ish s/r is a key level to break in order for the slight new-high bullish alternative to occur. Good fortune.
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