Tuesday, August 26, 2014

2000

In the past year, the pullbacks have been getting smaller but the rallies have to. In the last year, rallies off meaningful time or price bottoms lasted 8-18 trading days with only 2-4 small down days mixed in before they ever pulled back 30+ points. The previous year witnessed several rallies 22+ days before pulling back 30 points. Most of those pullbacks were quickly erased too. Today was Day 13 of the rally without a 30+ point pullback. So, this tells me SPX is likely to pullback 30-40 points any day now with 2005 or even 2020+ being possible tops thereby making the 1960-65 breakout area or 1980-1990 breakout area the probable targets with new highs (or close to it) after that.

After I analyzed this, I came across the following article which raises a similar point about all the V-shaped bottoms in the last couple years.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/08/26/this-chart-shows-how-v-shaped-stock-market-rebounds-have-become-the-norm/ 

Monday was a small SOS day most of the day but fell off the list late in the day. SPX has rallied despite the 2 recent big SOS days but in limited grinding fashion. Retracing to the 1965 breakout area mentioned above would be consistent with previous scenarios this has occurred. Good fortune.

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