Monday, June 9, 2014

2014.06.09 Potential SPX Short Trade Setup

My System Score is neutral today, so a breach of 4hr support (currently 1946.24) would lead to a System short position. However, that neutral state could change to slightly bullish at end of day especially if SPX ends up mildly. And, even if the System goes short, the Score will likely stay neutral-to-slightly-bullish which means it won't take much to flip back to a long position. In situations like this, I would not be surprised by a small pullback but it would likely find support at the 1920s +/- (1.5% +/-) where there was recent congestion and where support is rising to. That's a small window for a short so probably better for most to sit out and either reload long or wait for a better short setup. With a projected mid-August 5-10%+ SPX bottom due to discretionary spending lag that I've chronicled, a significant top in mid-June to mid-July is likely with late June to early July August being the ideal window. So, maybe SPX corrects 1-2% this week and then grinds higher 1-2 more weeks into 1950-2000 perhaps into end of Q2 before retesting the various 1812-1862 pivots and possibly the 1738 low. Good fortune.

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