2014.04.23 Wednesday Update

I spent days with my wife in the hospital last week and recovering into this week with an emergency but all is OK now. Just one of life's wakeup calls to focus on what's important.

Impressive SPX rally especially through the 1840-1860 area. The downtrend ended at 4.4%, not quite the 5%+ or even more typical 8%+ I was looking for. Interestingly, OPEX max pain near 1860 last Thursday worked like a charm, although I don't incorporate it in my trading thoughst any more...just something I look at for amusement when it nails price every few months at OPEX. The price action for the last few months makes some sense after back-to-back monthly spending signals that called for a significant top between early March and early April and a significant bottom between mid-March and mid-April. Many markets like Nasdaq and Russell and Asia and others did experience 10%+ pullbacks but Dow/SPX stayed in a congested range...and remain there albeit near the top. My System would be short today at 1877 at the break of 4hr support with overbought hourly indicators, but there is considerable support/congestion at 1840-1860 and the System would go long again if hourly indicators cool off for a couple days with SPX staying near/above key moving averages. Another new high seems likely, but, regardless, my spending signal is calling for another significant bottom (and this signal does not overlap another) this summer possibly in mid-June. And, all the other intermediate and long-term indicators I detailed are only getting worse. So, SPX is likely in a long topping process that will exhaust itself in the coming days, weeks or possibly a few months. I'll try to project the likeliest intermediate paths in the next week or so based on the totality of evidence. Good fortune to you and your family.