2014.04.13 Sunday Update

Fun With Numbers...
I've detailed plenty of reasons for a sizable bounce starting from SPX 1800ish or 1740-1760 with another significant low in summer and scenarios in between for a new high or not. However, I made a few interesting observations this morning that might help narrow down short-term support.

1. Assuming A=1897-->1837, C=A*(1 or 1.23 or 1.38 or 1.5 or 1.62 or 2) at 1813, 1800, 1790, 1783, 1776 or 1753 respectively.
2. Assuming 1=1897-->1837, the odds are higher for the larger multiples above (1.38x+) particularly 1776-1790.
3. Assuming a larger ABC irregular flat 3-3-5 from SPX 1851 in January (looks better in the Dow), C=A at 1897-(1851-1738)=1784
4. OEW pivot at 1779
5. 200dSMA at 1761+ and 40wSMA at 1774.
6. The steepest uptrend line remaining started at SPX 1343 in November 2012 and resides at 1798ish currently.
7. Previous multi-day or multi-week support/bounce areas since late 2013 that are below the current 1814 low...1753, 1746, 1777, 1779, 1768
8. SPX Volume by Price 12 months: Heaviest zone is 1640 with 1840-1860 barely behind that. No surprise. Then comes 1700ish, then 1780-1800. Huge price-volume gap below 1750-1760.
9. SPX Price-Volume since March 2009: Heaviest at 1075-1175 with 1075-1375 absolutely dwarfing all other price zones. Put in the perspective of 5 years, there is medium price support below 1500 and heavy price support below 1375. Price-volume since March 2000 paints a story that is pretty much identical.
10. Fib 61.8% retracement of 1738-->1897 is 1798. 76.4% retracement is 1775.

From these numbers and the various technical indicators previously presented, we can deduce that...
1) there is good support confluence at 1798-1800ish and again at 1774-1790 and
2) when the old 1576 and 1553 highs from year 2007 and 2000 are finally tested, they are likely to be greatly surpassed into the 1400s or lower.

Thus, if SPX drops Monday, I expect the completion of either a 3-wave pattern at 1800ish or a 5-wave pattern at 1780ish. Either one should lead to a sizable rally to back test 1840-1860 at a minimum and possibly a new high. Beyond that, I have some ideas but we'll just have to see how this coming week (4 trading days) plays out. Good fortune.