SPX is testing an uptrend line at 1846ish that originated from 1343 in November 2012 and served as a touchpoint several times including 1840 but was breached and recovered in January. So, 1840-1846 should provide temporary support but a breach should give way to 1800ish.
More importantly, there are uptrend lines from SPX 667 in March 2009 that will come into play if a significant 8%+ downtrend and probable 20%+ downtrend gets underway. The trend line using daily price lows at 667 and 1075 in October 2011currently resides at 1475ish crossing 1550ish in August. The trend line using daily closing values at 683 in March 2009 and 1136 in September 2011 currently resides at 1580ish. Either one or both could easily come into play if the old 1576 high from year 2007 is backtested.
Short-term, a couple of my technical indicators have now turned bullish but price below moving averages has made others bearish, so the System Score is actually still bearish but expected to turn bullish over the next day if price stays low. So, we may see a retracement of the top if 1840-1846 holds for a day. Otherwise, a breakdown below 1840-1846 would likely mean a retracement will merely backtest the 1830s-1840s.
One other note regarding my discretionary spending top/bottom calls. I noticed that the first week of March remains the closing high week for SPX and Dow. In the past, I have used price high, so maybe the call was not so bad after all but I think price high has usually worked best. Good fortune.
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