Friday, September 6, 2013

Thu 9/5/2013. Daily Update.

Current SPX Position: Long at 1648
Next Action: Stop and go short at 1651.21 (likely to rise to 1654.48 with Friday morning gap up)
System Score: 5=Neutral=Trend Score + Turn Score=6-1
Proposed New Score: 48%=Neutral=Trend Score + Turn Score=24+24

The stop is likely to rise to 16511654 on Friday morning. The Score is likely to turn bullish but will return to neutral-to-bearish if SPX falls back to the 1650s to fill the expected opening gap up. If we use the 5-wave count 1710-->1628, the current bounce is likely part of a wave B/2 which is likely to retrace 38-62%+ equating to 1660-1678+. And, possibly, SPX is in the final c wave of that ABC bounce with the minimum level being reached Friday. The previous wave 4 pivot is around 1670 and the initial breakdown occurred at 1685ish so those are still potential targets. Although I expect 1600-1605 to be tested at a minimum in the coming weeks, I am unsure whether the Fed meeting will be used as the excuse to sell a high or buy a low in mid-September. Good fortune.

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