Current SPX Position: Short at 1630
Next Action: Stop and go long at 1622.32
System Score: 5.5=Neutral=Trend Score + Turn Score=4+1.5
Proposed New Score: 52%=Neutral=Trend Score + Turn Score=20+32
The Score already turned neutral with the continued drop late Wednesday. If SPX drops to 1600-1610, it should stay neutral whereas staying above 1610 into the Thursday close could turn the Score bullish. For technical reasons, a drop below the previous 1598 low will almost certainly turn the Score bullish. However, that scenario would also favor a short setup on the next large bounce. The neutral Score now means the System will go long at 4hr resistance.
The projections remain on target....large bounce from 1600ish and then a test of 1530-1550 with 1575ish slightly possible and a 1600ish double bottom even less likely. It's looking like SPX will break 1598 imminently. However, it's tough to say whether the final headfake and drop will occur into or after the FOMC meeting. I'd love to see 1575ish on Fri/Mon with a 2-3 day dead-cat bounce back to 1600-1620 based on Fed hope followed by a disappointment drop and bottom near Friday OPEX below 1550. In any event, June 19-21 (or the following Monday morning) still seems ideal for a bottom with a probable bottom retest (higher low?) in the 1st week of July. Volatility is back for now. Good fortune.
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