Current SPX Position: None
Next Action: Go long at 1560.27
System Score: 10+=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=8+6
Proposed New Score: 80%=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=28+52
The System Score and Proposed New Score are very bullish, but the System has no current position. The System would still be short from 1556 if the new score had been in place. Even a mildly weak Monday could drop the Score to 10 and the new Score to 64%, but those are still bullish figures. That means the System will likely be looking for a long position for at least another day or two even though the big picture technicals and fundamentals are deteriorating.
Tony Caldaro's OEW projection for the next 1-2 months makes a lot of sense to me...a rapid drop to 1500ish followed by 2-3 weeks of bottom building (including at least a 50% retracement to the 1530s) followed by another new high. I have been expecting an eventual retest of the 1525-1530 breakout area with likely destination of 1500ish and possibly even the old 1485 pivot. I have also been expecting SPX to tumble approximately 5% in 3-6 days followed by weeks of building a bottom as a repeat of market behavior in recent years. And, my discretionary spending analysis allows for a top in April, but late April to early June is the sweet spot for a new high or at least a retest. The main question has been when this downtrend would occur, and the likely 5th waves and EDTs in recent weeks dragged out its start a long time...and it's not even confirmed until 1539 is broken. OEW counts predict 3 more significant uptrends into late 2013 or early 2014, but I expect the one that's likely starting in May/June will be a 10%+ doozy and we'll just have to evaluate discretionary spending, cycles and various technicals at that point. Good luck.
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