Current SPX Position: Long from 1550.90
Next Action: Stop and go short at 1546 (raise stop to 4hr support at 2PM Monday - currently 1551.13)
System Score: 10+=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=7+4.5
Proposed New Score: 72%=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=28+44
The Score has grown a little more bullish and the System remains long. The Proposed New Score would have gone short at 1549 and then been stopped out for an 11pt loss (1549-->1560), and it would have suffered a 4pt loss a week or two ago. More sensitivity to turns comes with a price. Still, we'll evaluate the new score more fully once SPX has suffered a 5-10% downtrend. Around 2-3PM tomorrow, I expect the technicals to be aligned back at neutral-to-bearish unless SPX falls apart before then. In fact, I suspect SPX will retest 1565-1575 at some point Tues/Wed before dropping down to 1525-1530 or even 1500ish. Dropping much below 1525-1530 would be scary for bulls because the trend technicals would be squarely on the side of bears with good short setups every time hourly turn technicals got overbought. Still, I do not expect SPX to completely fall apart and drop below 1480 just yet since discretionary spending favors a top in late May or June. So, I expect SPX to rally hard from the 1520s OR fall near 1500 and then consolidate at 1480-1530 for 1-2 weeks in preparation for a final rally or two likely to new highs (but an 80-90% retrace at a minimum based on recent years). Good luck.
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