Current SPX Position: Short from 1551.87
Next Action: Stop and go long at 1556.78
System Score: 7=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=10-3 (was neutral today)
Proposed New Score: 56=Bullish?=Trend Score + Turn Score=48+8
The System is short now. Whipsaw is always a risk after a long run like this. The last missed long trade would have been the System's 4th largest winner since August at 33pts (1519-->1552).
The daily, weekly and monthly RSI and MACD are still badly diverging from price. A short-term correction to 1520-1535 seems likely with 1500ish possible within weeks, but my discretionary spending analyses and the broken EDTs and momentum seem to favor new highs into at least April and possibly May/June. Good luck.
S2,
ReplyDeleteAt the tops of moves up to new highs during this bull market run, has your system score been more likely to be bearish or just neutral? I am trying to distinguish between new highs and just a retracement move up on the bigger down moves in the market. For example: the move to 1530.94 on Feb 20th vs. the move to 1526 on Feb 25th. Are moves like the 1530.94 more likely to show system values of bearish or just neutral if we ignore the moves to relative highs like the 1526. Thanks!
At tops, the System rarely goes bearish. It typically turns neutral as the Turn Score counteracts the Trend Score. Then, when support is broken, it typically turns bullish as indicators get oversold, so it will often buy the 1st dip as it did today. Occasionally, you will get a quick runaway down move in which case the Score could turn bullish while the System stays short. But, more often than not, you get a large retracement off the first drop from a top and the System will trade both sides. Hope that makes sense.
ReplyDeleteyes it does. thanks!
ReplyDelete