Update Tues 3/5/2013 8:45AM EST: Technically, the System would have stopped out AND gone long at 1518.89 yesterday, because the Score was bullish above 1513 and 1518.88 was 4hr resistance. However, I have given you a way to determine stops and 4hr resistance in the System Review tab, but I have not given you a way to know my Score (at least not precisely since you've known 1513+/- has been the dividing line for a couple days). So, I think it's a fair decision to count the last short trade as a 6pt loser (1513-1519) but not count the long entry since I did not give explicit instructions for that. The System will remain officially neutral until the next setup. Right now, the System would go short below 1514 but that level is likely to rise because hourly indicators should be wildly overbought if SPX rallies for a few hours today.
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Sorry I had no time to post today and little time on the internet this afternoon, and I still have more job stuff to do tonight. The System entered a new short position at 1512.60 and technically should have stopped out at 1518.89 at 4hr resistance as the System Review tab outlines since the score was still neutral-bullish above 1513. However, I did not post any such explicit instructions in advance for a 2nd intraday trade so I've got to decide what to do. I will try to post an update before tomorrow's open. For now, I will quickly add that the Score is a bullish 7 (10-3=trend-turn) until SPX drops below 1514. I think Dow made its 2nd highest daily close ever but missed the highest weekly close last week by about 3 points. You have to think the powers that be want a new Dow high because it would make for great headlines for sure for sure, but we'll see if market forces will allow it. Good luck.
Hello S2,
ReplyDeleteWhat happened yesterday is quite amazing in fact as the market just triggered your short entry point by a few pennies and missed your long entry also for a few pennies.
As I said yesterday, your systematic program is yielding extrordinary results in a particularly tough environment and we can only thank you for sharing it with us graciously.
However, if I may suggest, the biggest drawback of your posts is the lack of a specified stop accompanying each entry point.
Yesterday is a good example of this shortcoming as the system went short at 1512.50 but with no specified stop. I agree with your explanation today that you have indeed provided a method to determine stops but this method can be rather confusing and it is dependent upon your system score which is not known to us except when you post it.
Also, I don’t understand why you mentioned in your post today that you didn't give explicit instructions for a long entry. In your week-end update you said to go long at 1525.35. Do you not consider this to be an instruction to go long because the short entry at 1512.50 was triggered first and thus cancelled the long entry instruction ? Or is it that this long entry point had changed during the day and you didn’t have time to post an update ?
Keep up the good work.
Trigone5, I agree I should extend my "Next Action" comments to include the next stop/reversal more often. That is better for reader planning and less prone to problems when I don't have time to post. However, keep in mind, my trigger points are often moving targets because 4hr s/r can change hourly. Determining 4hr s/r is not as simple as counting back 4 hourly candles, but it is explained in the System Review tab. And, you are correct to say stops are not always placed at 4hr s/r but they are when the Score is against the active System position.
ReplyDeleteAs you suspected, the reason 1525 wasn't the trigger point for a long entry was because 4hr resistance dropped to 1518.88 when SPX dropped to 1512. Maybe I should have counted the long trade from 1519 (the System would have 19+pts of profit virtually locked in already) since the Score was presumably bullish above 1513, but I didn't want to come across as a Tuesday morning quarterback since there is an element of flexibility in my System and I typically post in advance (or within minutes of an action).
Thanks for your input.