Current SPX Position: Long from 1462.98
Next Action: Stop at 1461.29
System Score: 8=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=10-2
SPX
missed a higher hourly close by pennies, so the stop stays the same.
However, SPX did make a new uptrend high at 1472.75. There is the
semblance of a 4-day wedge but it's imperfect and probably more likely
to break higher especially with a new bull market high just points away.
There are several reasons why I said the 1490s are the next resistance
after 1470-1475 where we've battled this week.
1.
If 1398-->1468 was an A wave as I suspect and as made more likely by
the shallow retracement to 1452, then C=A*0.62=1495ish is common.
2.
If 1452-->1472=20pts has been a series of 1-2 combo waves as part of
a wave C, then my old analysis suggests the whole impulsive structure
is likely to make it to 1472+20pts=1492+.
3.
A 1.5-2% rally in SPX to the 1490s should be enough to give the Dow a
new bull market high possibly completing the morphing EDT we have been
watching for 6 months.
4. Tony Caldaro shows EW/Fib resistance near 1500.
5.
On a smaller scale, 1440-1450 is resistance-turned-support and on a
larger scale, 1460-1470 may try to do the same thing, but a pullback
from the 1490s to retest 1470ish would be very normal.
Having
said that, even if SPX rallies to the 1490s, that would not necessarily
be the end of the bull market. I'd expect a retest of the 1470ish
breakout, and then we'd have to see how the subsequent rally does. That
could take 1-3 weeks to evolve but would likely determine the fate of
February and some of March. Like I pointed out in some previous
analysis, whatever happens into mid-March or April is likely to be
largely erased in the subsequent months based on SPX action since the
year 2000. Personally, I'd like to see SPX bounce around 1470-1500 for a
couple weeks and then fall precipitously below 1400 in a couple weeks
as confirmation of an EDT conclusion to the bull market in which case
the subsequent rally would likely be met with an even larger drop likely
testing 1267ish by March or early April when Congress passes some new
kick-the-can measure that can't get SPX back to new highs. Regardless,
the System should guide us pretty well. Good luck.
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