Current SPX Position: Short from 1429.08
Next Action: Stop and go long at 1422.81
System Score: 5=Neutral=Trend Score + Turn Score=9-4
1415ish appears to be the dividing line right now for the bullish-bearish case according to my System. So, the System will likely only go long if SPX breaks 4hr candle resistance at 1415+ or if indicators get oversold enough over the next day or two.
The System appears headed to a 3rd straight profitable trade after losing 3 in a row. Although my backtesting for the last couple years was done by hand due to lack of an hourly data feed, the monthly profit average was around 25pts with an approximate 60% win percentage. Including the current trade status and including a couple System tweaks after backtesting, the System has an actual 57% win rate with 80+ SPX pts gained (~6%) in less than 4 months covering 21 trades. In that time span, the System has twice lost 4 out of 5 trades and managed a 6-consecutive win streak. My backtesting and live trading experience with the System reveal what you'd expect out of a trend-based methodology; the System tends to get chopped up and lose more than win during sideways action but catches the majority of larger moves while being invested about 80% of the time. I am not sure what will happen in the next month or two, but I will be making a couple minor tweaks official (previously discussed) and my expectation is for the System to earn an unleveraged 20-25% per year in bearish and bullish market conditions. I am not aware of many people putting actual trades (generally known hours or days in advance) in the blogosphere for free. There are reasons for that. The System is certainly not perfect, and I actually think I could improve it if I could do some what-if testing of all my variables with an hourly data feed but that will have to wait. I may invest in something like that if my System proves itself further over the next few months.
FYI...today is a small BOW day so far which if it sticks combined with Tuesday's SOS day in the 1430s means SPX is likely to chop around for a while and the market's decision around 1415ish will probably determine at what range that chop will occur. Good luck.
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