Current Position: Short from 1459.50
Next Action: Stop at 1458.32
Score (0-10): 2=Bearish=Trend Score + Turn Score=6-4
The Score is now solidly bearish and will stay that way and possibly worsen unless SPX rallies above 1460 by Thursday. I suspect the Turn Score will turn the tide neutral-to-bullish if SPX stays down for a couple days or breaks the previous 1431 low. But, the trend is now down and, based on my discretionary spending analyses and previous bullish Turn Score extremes plus political/economic uncertainty and a temporarily maxed-out Fed, SPX is in trouble if it does not recapture the 20dSMA quickly. A 2-4 weeks downtrend falling to the 1370s or lower is still very possible. Assuming that happens with end of October or the November 2nd jobs report being a possible bottom, I'd expect a relief rally surrounding the election. Then, I think we'll reach a real surge or collapse juncture with end of year and the fiscal cliff coming into play and March historically being the next major turning point marking the end of that surge or collapse. If SPX recaptures the 20dSMA for a day or two, watch out SPX 1500, here we come. Good luck.
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