Current Position: Long at 1418
Next Action: Stop at 1395
Score (0-10): 6=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=2+4
On Thursday, you were aware the System would go long at 1416+, but I did not specify a stop in advance. I have mentioned many times that as long as the Score stays on the same side as the trade, the System uses a stop beyond 4-hour s/r typically 0.5% away (no more than 1%) or at the nearest meaningful pivot. 4-hour support was at 1407 with 1400 being 0.5% lower and 1396-1397 providing support multiple times at the end of August, so I used 1395. The problem is my readers couldn't be sure whether the Score had stayed bullish or not. I can tell you that the Score does not typically change much until it moves a day or two off oversold/overbought hourly conditions or it crosses key moving averages. The Thursday morning 1% whipsaw did neither. But, that's still no guarantee of knowing the Score since I am keeping it proprietary. Unfortunately, my new long-term work assignment will just not allow intraday blog updates except perhaps one day per week, so I will be looking into twitter updates by phone. I know that makes things tougher on you, but I seriously doubt any of you are solely trading my System and I'm not getting paid for this and I still think the information will generally be useful. Give me some time to see what I can do to adjust.
Today was another fairly sizable BOW day. The System is long and the Score is narrowly bullish. If SPX can close Monday at 1420+, the Score should stay bullish. Otherwise, it will almost certainly turn neutral to bearish which means the System would tighten the stop to 1403 and potentially higher if SPX closes any hour above 1413. And, even if SPX closes above 1420 Monday, it will only narrowly remain bullish and flip to neutral/bearish as soon as it falls back unless it can capture and sustain 1440+. So, the bottom line is still that SPX has lots of resistance at 1420-1430 and 1440ish, and the System will almost certainly be going short again on the next pullback breaking support but riding long until that happens. I hope that makes sense and gives you a likely System roadmap for Mon/Tues no matter which way SPX travels. Good luck and have a great weekend.
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