Friday, October 19, 2012

Fri 10/19/2012. Daily Update.

Current Position: Short at 1456.48
Next Action: Stop at 1458.75
Score (0-10): 0=Bearish=Trend Score + Turn Score=2-4

As suspected, the Score turned very bearish as SPX dropped below 1460 and 1447. I am actually on a family vacation so I'll make this short and sweet. I can see the ocean and beach below my balcony as I write. I apologize for not posting yesterday. I intended on doing so by lunch time before we left, but we had car issues that I had to take care of. I last speculated that SPX might whipsaw us at 1456/1462 and it did. However, the System Score stayed narrowly bearish at 4 even as SPX rallied back above 1462 which means the System would give room for its stop to the nearest significant pivot (1471/1475) or 0.5% (1470). In any case, the System stayed short from 1456 to now. Even if the System had kept a tight stop at 1462 and traded in and out of the whipsaw, it would still be short at 1456 but with some minor losses beforehand. The System took 25% profit at 1443 due to 15min indicators reaching oversold levels. SPX 1447ish is an important battleground, and I think bears will win this battle with SPX falling to the 1390s or 1370ish in the next week or two. Regardless, we will play the cards we are dealt. Good luck.

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