Wed 9/26/2012. Daily Update.

(Update Wed 9/26/12 4PM EST)
If SPX can close below 1431.58 at 10AM or 11AM, the System long entry level will drop to 1439.29. I'll probably wait until then to post again. For what it's worth, I think one more wave down is needed to complete an EW wave C/3 from the 1475 top. The subsequent bounce would likely meet resistance around 1440ish. 1450 turned out to be a good stop level as witnessed by the subsequent sharp drop. In the last 6 months, there have been 4 previous cases where the Turn Score aligned extremely bullish like it is now. May 8th led to 2-3 days of sideways-to-up action followed by a 70pt drop in 1 week. June 4th you might recognize as the significant 1267 bottom followed by a 70pt rally in 1 week. July 12th marked the 1325 bottom with a 55pt rally in 1 week and Aug 23-28 led to sideways-to-down action for 5-6 days followed by a 78pt rally in less than 2 weeks. So, recent odds suggest SPX will move 55-80pts in one direction or the other starting within the next few days, if not immediately, and lasting 1 week or so. That aligns pretty well with the October 5th jobs report which could mark a turning point or final surge/drop. That also means the 1370s and 1490s are possible targets for early October. The current trend favors the bullish scenario, but my discretionary spending analysis favors the bearish scenario. I suppose a brief 2-3 day rally that makes a lower high from 1420-1430 back to 1440-1460 before diving below 1400 would match all my puzzle pieces, but we'll judge things as they come. Good luck.
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(Update Wed 9/26/12 12PM EST)
Current Position: None
Next Action: Long at 1455.06 (will drop to 1441.61 if SPX closes an hour below 1431.58)
Score (0-10): 10+=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=6+6

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Current Position: None
Next Action: Long at 1456.70 (4-hour candle resistance dropping)
Score (0-10): 10+=Bullish=Trend Score + Turn Score=6+3

1440ish support has been reached. The 20dSMA at 1438 is being pierced. Not sure if 1425ish support will be tested. The Trend Score has become less bullish, but the Turn Score has become more bullish, so the overall Score is likely to remain bullish until we get a failed rally especially if it can occur from the 1420s. Yesterday, TRIN was >3. The previous day was a large Buy On Weakness day. Short-term technical indicators are at oversold levels. The trend is still up. Buy-the-dip mentality is still in effect...for now. That means the spring has been coiled for a potentially rapid rally even if it ultimately fails to breach 1475. Ideally, SPX would grind lower for a few more hours or even a day thereby lowering 4-candle hourly resistance to a point that would allow us to benefit from a 20-30pt rally. Good luck.