Monday, August 6, 2012

Mon 8/6/12. Daily Updates.

Date-TimeMon 8/6/12 3:15PM EST
Active SPX TradeNone
System Score (S2)6 = Trend Score + Turn Score = 10 - 4 = bullish
Trade Trigger (T2)The next trade is likely to be long unless SPX drops all the way back to the 1360s early this week or maybe 1370s in 2-4 days.
CommentarySystem hourly support is curently at SPX 1390.99 and will likely rise to 1396.64 if SPX closes above 1399.22. The Turn Score is still not extreme enough to overcome the fully aligned bullish technicals, so the bias is long until technical damage is done. Once again, the last T2 long trigger at 1374 would have worked for a profit, but the huge gap up to 1383ish made it too risky in my experience. If the gaps keep working, I may change my mind. My RSI cycle work favors a low of some degree on August 17/20 +/- and since that aligns with OPEX, it's possible that SPX will pull back to 1370ish in that time period since max pain is rising and currently in the low 1360s. But, with 8-10 trading days until then, there is time for a rally and/or consolidation with various resistances at 1402, 1422 and 1440. There are tons of negative divergences in price, breadth, risk markets etc and the monetary/financial backdrop seems dubious until post-election but price is king. Good luck.

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