Tues 5/22/2012. 5-7 days.

(Update Wed 5/23/12 10:45AM EST)
Although SPX crossing NOZO at 1325 made a new low less likely in my experience, none of the major moving averages or pivots were retaken and it doesn't take a brainiac to see 1292 is under threat today. The previous 5-7 day uptrend scenarios that I referred to yesterday did not show this kind of weakness, but the buying on weakness numbers for SPY last week, cycles and various other oversold indicators certainly favor a large dead cat bounce. So, I'd compare the current action to June, August and December 2011 in which the 5-7 day count was reset after a retest of the lows (only 1 of those 3 pierced it and that happened to be the most bullish case in December). So, whether or not SPX decides to break 1292 or test the 200dSMA near 1280, I still expect an explosive 1-2 week dead cat bounce imminently followed by a bad June. Gotta go. Good luck.
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SPX 1340 became resistance and that was all she wrote. It appears the near-miss May 18ish cycle low projection may be significant. Maybe I should loosen my criteria ever so slightly but I did keep mentioning it since it was so close. I'll backtest later. My next cycle lows are projected for June 4ish and July 23ish. Discretionary spending projected a major top the week of April 9 or June 4 +/-. Obviously, we have mixed signals for June 4ish and April 2nd was the likely top, so I expect there will be 1-2 choppy weeks surrounding June 4th with a lower high (not above 1415-1422) followed by weakness into late June or July. The FOMC announcement on June 20 is likely to produce an SPX bottom if they act or an acceleration point down if they don't.

If you look at the SPX daily chart for the last year or so, you'll notice most of the large rallies off oversold lows produced the vast majority of their gains in 5-7 days (usually 50-100+ pts = 1342-1392+) and then varied in what followed after that. If we assume 1292 on May 18th is at least a short-term low (logical support due to Fibs and the old 1293 pivot high), a 5-7 day rally would take us to May 25-30 which is within the June 4 +/- 1 week window. Overlapping the 1343 or 1357 pivot lows would probably cause the most confusion amongst technicians, so I wouldn't doubt a retest of the recent 1-week 1360-1370 support/resistance zone where a lot of people entered long or short.

Although another SPX low is still possible this week until the NOZO (see terminology) at 1325ish is surpassed, my evidence favors an SPX rally to 1343-1392 with most gains seen by May 25-30 followed by choppiness (probably a slight upward bias) into early June and then a swoon into late June with the June 20th FOMC announcement being the catalyst one way or the other for late June and July. The likeliest short-term resistance areas are the 1340s where the 1343 pivot and 89hSMA/EMA resides and 1360-1380 where the 20/50dSMA reside along with OEW pivots and recent 1365-1370 s/r. Good luck.