Thu 3/29/2012. Final throes.

(Update Mon 4/2/2012 12:30PM EST)
Although I have been projecting SPX 1440s around April 9-16 in recent weeks, there are a couple new obstacles. 1) There is a possible EDT 5th wave completing now from 1340. If so, SPX could fall fast and hard in a matter of hours. However, surpassing 1425 would make 1440+ more likely due to EW triangle rules and the trend is up. 2) The monthly weighted composite consumer leading indicator at http://www.consumerindexes.com/history.html did not quite make a new high for March (115.84 vs 116.09) since the last couple weeks of spending tailed off, so we can no longer put much weight on April 9-16 as a projected top. SPX must break 3-day candle and 20dSMA support at 1392ish currently to turn things bearish. Good luck.
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The Dow seems to be driving things. It tested its 20dSMA last week leading to a rally before SPX reached its own 20dSMA as its 3-candle daily breakdown forecasted, and then Dow failed to make a new high leading to a bearish roll over despite SPX breaking above 1414. SPX has broken hourly support once again, so one could be short again from 1410 like I am, but the trend is still up with price above rising 20/50/200dSMAs so it's a very short-term trade. With SPX now in the bullseye for a cycle low time-wise, I think the next 4-candle hourly resistance breakout is a buy although the cycle low can extend up to 2 weeks and there are sometimes 1 or 2 fakeouts that require stops at the lows. In terms of EW, SPX and Dow may be carving out irregular flats to 1372-1392. That would fit my last analysis calling for a likely low this week followed by a 2-week rally to the 1440s before dropping hard to 1340-1370 or 1300ish. In any event, I will follow the candles and moving averages which currently tell me to buy the current cycle low on an hourly breakout, but, if SPX breaks below 1370 before that happens, you would see price below a falling 20dSMA and below 3-candle daily support making the situation very bearish. Keep in mind that the next significant spending-cycle top is projected for April 9-16 or June 1ish whether that occurs with a higher high or lower high. Good luck.