(Update Fri 2/24/12 10AM)
A potential EDT could be completing today with all the choppy waves in the last 2-3 weeks. I am sticking with my short position from SPX 1365 and topping it off this morning. The trend has been persistent to the upside, but there are a lot of signs pointing to a pullback near 1300-1310. If that occurs in the next couple weeks, it could be interpreted as a wave 4 counting from SPX 1159 in November 2011 or an initial wave 1/A down. My consumer spending indicator favors an 8%+, 4+ week pullback, but it was also expecting a top by Feb 13 and the market has pushed those bounds slightly so a mere 5% pullback is not out of the question. One step at a time. As I said before, if I'm wrong and SPX bursts higher, I'll exit my short trade on a backtest of the 1370s. Good luck to you and your family.
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I have made very little progress in the last 2 weeks with the System scoring due to work deadlines, but I am chipping away at it. My realistic hope is to have a beta scoring system by the end of March to test and tweak for a couple months after that. My last personal short trade in late January with initial entry at 1327 caught the largest drop in 6+ weeks to 1300 but I got a little greedy and made nothing out of it. I have now personally entered another post-OPEX short position just after the open near 1365. SPX may pierce the 2011 high at 1371 but I am expecting a 1-2 week downtrend and the risk-reward skews downward. If I'm wrong and SPX bursts higher, I will exit any back test of the low 1370s to re-evaluate. The market is likely topping with the news but I am reserving my opinion on whether it's a short, intermediate or long-term top. The 3-3-5 flat scenario from 1371 and/or the multi-year triangle from 1576/667 is still appealing to me since those patterns would produce the the sideways-to-down action that befits a souring macroeconomic backdrop with volatile emotions and improved non-financial balance sheets. Good luck.
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