A close below the pivot and 10dSMA at 1309-1311 should result in a test of the 20dSMA and October high at 1293. Today's small gap down above yesterday's low may lead to one more bounce to 1319-1327, but it is unlikely that yesterday completed a cycle low. The various bottoming indicators I watch were not at typical extremes. A low should complete within the next week probably around Jan31/Feb1.
In my current System studies, I am evaluating a custom Cycle Pressure indicator that takes into account what I've learned about 2-month cycles and mid-cycles and I am also scoring the moving averages and indicators that the System currently watches with the intent of producing a custom trading indicator that has zero subjectivity. Although backtesting and fine-tuning will take me another month or two, I'll throw out some tentative information.
The current cycle was projected to end Jan 19 +/-. It's obviously running late. Cycles occur on somewhat of a bell curve with most ending near the targeted date but some don't. There is another cycle (what I have labeled the mid-cycle in my current system) projected to end around Feb 13. Since the primary cycle is running long and the mid-cycle is only 2 weeks away, it would not be uncommon to see a low in between the two. In my theory, that is due to cumulative cycle pressure. Such an event would not preclude another low on Feb 13 or 1-2 weeks after. However, a low that extends beyond the next few days would likely preclude a new SPX high above 1333, because my spending indicator expects a top in week 20-23 which ends Feb 10. I tend to think SPX will bounce from 1275-1300 but can't say whether the bounce will exceed 1333 by Feb 10. If SPX rallies above 1333 before breaking 1309, I will likely exit my short position, re-evaluate and try again later.
BTW, 666.79+666.79=1333.58 vs 1333.47. Hmmm. Good luck.
Looking forward to your updated system notes and continued comments.
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