Sat 12/24/11. Triangle dead?

(Update Wed 12/28/11 2AM EST)
The System completely exited its profitable long position and entered a new short position at 1266.43 with stop at 1273. We may get 1 whipsaw loss before the trend turns down, but it is high reward-risk. Today was another SOS day albeit on the weak side, and, although low-volume positive seasonality is slightly fighting/slowing the bearish stats I gave on the SOS signal 3 trading days ago, they are bearish nonetheless and now we have a small SOS confirmation along with an ARMS ratio warning, a recent Hindenberg omen and 2-candle hourly support break with 4-candle break near at 1264.94.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=mdc_pastcalendar
So, all is not well in stock-ville, but a bearish outcome depends on a US Dollar breakout, and I'll discuss SPX counts and projections before next week's trading. Good luck.
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The System is now only 75% 25% long with stop and short level at 1261.23. As a warning, I will not provide much, if any, System information or opinion during my 4 family vacation days next week.

Is my preferred triangle pattern dead? Technically no. Probabilistically yes. Let's review some technical points.
1. The SPX ABCDE triangle from 1075 is not officially dead until 1267.06 is surpassed.
2. Dow broke its October high with massive daily negd and tiny hourly negd.
3. Naz/NDX still exhibit near-perfect triangles with about 2.5% left to avoid violation.
4. Naz closed on its 200dSMA to the penny, NDX closed 1 pt above its 50dSMA, the Wilshire 5000 closed about .25% below its 200dSMA and the Dow closed less than .1% above its October high.
5. The SPX 200dSMA will not turn up unless it can rally 60-80+pts in 2 weeks like SPX did 200 days ago in late March 2011.
6. My next preferred count is a zigzag to 1293+ which is approximately 2.5% above.
7. USD is hanging out above its breakout level with all key MAs turned up but with sentiment excessively bullish.

If SPX falls apart immediately on Tuesday, we can obviously stick with the triangle count and all the other indexes would support a very bearish outcome. But, realistically, SPX should break 1267 so let's review what that would mean.

If SPX reaches 1293+, that could also put Naz/NDX/Wilshire in less immediately bearish configurations but not necessarily bullish. So, SPX could still drop 5-10% to 1180-1220 into the mid-to-late January cycle low but not nearly as deep as I originally targeted at 1050-1100.

If SPX fails at 1268-1292, we could either count an expanded triangle with 2 more legs needed or a completed double zigzag from 1075 with lower high. Either one would ultimately be bearish and retain the bearish triangle patterns in Naz/NDX, so the ultimate SPX price destination of 1050-1100 and then 850-900 would stick, but it would occur 1-3 months slower if 2 more triangle legs are needed.

In summary, an immediate SPX breakdown below 1240 without surpassing 1267 would support the current bearish triangle count, but anything more than a brief piercing of SPX 1267 is likely to push most markets beyond key s/r and thus 1293+ would seem likely. That would delay the timing of the 1050-1100 and 850-900 targets in 2012 with less damage into late January. I'll see where things stand after the New Year when I'll have more time and more information. Happy holidays and Happy New Year. Good luck.