Wed 11/23/11. The Missing Piece?

This post addresses the big picture. Let's start with some nearly undeniable facts.
1. The world economy will struggle for years with the worst yet to come.
2. Can-kicking will continue wherever and whenever possible.
3. The stock market's rip-roaring momentum peak ended in 2000.

From a technical perspective, the pattern that ties all the facts together in a nice little bow and brings most people's EW counts into sync is the triangle. In all my historical studies of DRSI and cycles going back to the 1800s as well as my own personal life experience, it is difficult to argue against a market momentum peak in 2000. That is why I believe the following count covering the entire history of the US (pardon the dates from memory) and designating year 2000 as wave 3of3of3.
[II] mid-1800s
2 1929-1932
ii 1937
iii 1967
iv 1977
(2) 1982
(3) 2000
(4) 2003
3 2007
4 201?
[III] 2070s-2080s?
[IV] 2090s?

Let's add some observations to that.
1. Triangles are common for wave 4s and wave Bs.
2. DRSI in a wave 4 should not fall below wave 2 and a triangle or long choppy WXY allows that.
3. Wave 2 in 1929-1932 was a sharp zigzag taking 3 years so Wave 4 is likely to be choppier and longer
4. Other likely wave 4s of lower degree occurred for most of the 1970s and 2000-2003, and they were choppy and long.
5. There is a huge price-volume vacuum at about 930-1000 and huge price-volume support at 850-900.
6. The US has peaked economically momentum-wise and will complete a series of 4-5-4-5 waves for the next 2 centuries.

And, from there, you can follow my logic that might help trading over the next few months to years.
1. Wave 4of3of5 from US Independence Day in 1776 started in 2007.
2. SPX 1576-->667 was an ABC zigzag forming wave W (or Aof4) for year 2007-2009.
3. SPX 667-->1371 was Wave AofX (a triangle from 2009) or Bof4 (a triangle from 2007) retracing 70%+ from 2009 to 2011.
5. SPX 1371-->???? will be an ABC retracing 60-70%+ to 860-940 with 956 being my next bear market confirmation level and it will be Wave BofX or Cof4 likely lasting at least 1 year to mid-to-late 2012.
6. You'll notice that in either count which best fits in the historical context, SPX should bounce from the 800s and should retrace 60-70%+ of 1371-->800s which likely means 1150-1250 in 2013 possibly due to post-election optimism and a spurt of Congressional action.
7. Then, SPX will fall in either the final leg of a triangle to 900-1000 or the final wave Y to sub-667.

Besides the historical context, I also like the triangle scenarios from 2007 or 2009 because (A) they will be forced to diverge in 2013 about the time we find out whether the new President and Congress can make any real impact and (B) people are going to be less and less likely to jump on any rapid rallies like we had in 2009 or October 2011 producing less and less momentum because people do not want to get fooled again and see the stark reality.

So, if I'm expecting a 1+ year ABC from SPX 1371 to the 800s, a 5-month drop to 1075 was a good start but a 1-month rally seems awfully short historically and based on my spending analyses. So, SPX is likely to chop around longer and may very well be in a triangle wave B or possibly a flat that will retest both 1075 and 1293. I favor the following triangle scenario because it makes sense in terms of the spending-projected mid-December top as well as my System cycle bottoms projected for Nov 25 +/- and late January. And, I should add that T-Theory has pegged 1293 as a likely top and almost every long-term cycle is now exerting downside pressure with a solar eclipse on Dec 10th to boot for those that believe the astronomical cycles.

1371-->1075=A=5months
1075-->1293=a of B=70%+ retrace=4wks
1293-->1130-1160?=b of B=60%+ retrace=4wks to Thanksgiving +/-
1230+/-=c of B=60%+ retrace=2wks to Dec 9 +/-
1160-1180=d of B=1-2wks to mid-to-late Dec
1200ish=e of B=1-2wks to New Years +/-=3months
1200ish-->825-925=(C=A*1.23to1.62) in price-volume support=3, 5 or 8 months in March, May or August - I'll know more once the next spending low finishes and we see further pattern

Given the severity of the situation, this will probably require some serious intervention by European and US Central Banks. If there is any risk to my scenario, I'd say it's to the downside meaning my scenario is about the most bullish I could come up with other than maybe a 3-3-5 flat back to 1293+. But, I'd rather be on the conservative side and bet on the historical likelihood of a triangle or other similar choppy pattern rather than a sudden collapse. I'll try to put this whole count and projection on my public weekly charts later in the weekend and hopefully it will prove to be as accurate as the other ones I posted in 2010 and mid-2011, but I'll be enjoying time with family the next couple days. Although life can be very difficult at times, we all have something to be thankful for.