The alternate wedge count from 1220 is dead. The only thing left is my favored wedge
count from 1231 which either completed at 1075 or could possibly maybe
sorta unlikely need one more leg down. My System cycles and technicals plus EW odds are nearly forcing me into the bull camp, but let's review time and price considerations.
Time:
The System mid-cycle low was projected for September 28th although it
has been running about 4 days late which happened to be Tuesday (the
current 1075 low). The window for my System cycles extends for up to 10
days for a momentum low and potentially a few days longer for a price
low although that is rare. So, the System cycle momentum window
officially closes on Wednesday October 12th. Four longer-term cycles
were scheduled to end during the first 2 weeks of October with 2 of those during the first week. I offered a
lot of stats over the past week including TRIN/ISEE etc that were
favoring a low on Mon-Wed this week and we got one along with 7 of 10 bottoming indicators. However, there are
other high-odds stats that suggest 1075 should be tested and still others that suggest SPX should pull back at least 2-4% in the next few days. Please see my previous posts and Cobra's site. And, since the
cycle windows and one EW wedge count would allow downside into next week, I cannot quite eliminate
a lower SPX low...yet. But, you can tell I'm close, and it hasn't mattered up to now anyway because there hasn't been a 2-candle pullback to allow any System entry long or short.
Price: The upper wedge line from 1231 has not been
violated as seen in blue on my public 60min 2candles chart, although SPX
has made that count uncomfortable today. Considering the 20dSMA is at
1162 and the 89hEMA/SMA is around 1150 and another day has passed and SPX closed above the 1220-->1196 trend line, I am
now tempted to say a line in the sand has been drawn at 1162ish right where SPX closed. I can certainly make the case for a double zigzag 1075-->1163 using DRSI and EW ending in an EDT. Anyway, in terms of downside targets, the ABC
down from 1231 to 1136 was 95pts long. I found 2 examples
in the last bear market where 5=1 approximately in an EDT and that would
target 1071ish currently and we arrived at a 1055-1060 target through numerous
other means, so I'd use a broad 1055-1075 target assuming SPX decides to retest
the low.
In summary, the technical case for another low below 1075 next week is extremely extremely weak but not 100% dead. The Friday jobs report may put the final nail in the coffin for that scenario or conversely revive it from near death. The strongest case can be made for a 38-62%-ish retracement to 1109-1131 rather than a new low. SPX 1121ish has been formidable support and 1102-1103 has pivots in both directions, so I wouldn't be surprised by a pullback to one of those levels followed by further rallying. The System remains in short mode awaiting 1 more short opportunity, but it has no current position after exiting its last trade (1188-->1118). I'm a little pissed that I expected a sharp rally from the 1050s to 1170-1200+ and yet didn't catch this ride, but dems da berries and I do the best I can with the hand I'm dealt. Good luck.
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