Sun 9/19. No signal. Expect pullback to 1100ish from 1130s.

(Update Sep 20 3:30 PM EST):
Stopped out at 1141 for a 1% loss. Bummed. System was smarter than me again. I'm considering an ABCXABC from 1040 and the ascending triangle is not technicaly eliminated until 1148.xx, but I will re-evaluate tonight or tomorrow. Remember the Fed announcement Tuesday afternoon. Good luck.

(Update Sep 20 11AM EST):
We got the new high and it looks like an expanding EDT 5th to me from a few days ago...for now. I see negd on the 1,5,15 and 60 min charts for RSI/price. There is no RSI negd on the daily unless SPX were to turn negative. Dow surpassed its August high by points. Based on my weekend analysis and the ascending SPX/Dow triangle tops, I accordingly raised my stop to 1140ish and I just increased my short position at 1137 from 75% to 100% of willing funds, so my cost basis has risen to 1130 and I'm risking about a 1% loss for a 2-3% gain since I'm targeting 1100-1110 short-term. I will consider lightening my load a little between now and the Fed announcement although I'm not expecting the Fed to use up its limited ammo at this stage. Once again, this is NOT a System trade. The System has been neutral to bullish since the 1060s. Daily support has risen to 1119 and hourly support to 1124 so that area must be broken by bears.
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Active SPX signal: None
Hourly trend: Up with support at 1118.88
Daily trend: Up with support at 1114.63
Last signal: Win. BUY signal at 1100 on Friday gap up from a 20dSMA test was closed 2/3rd at 1120 and 1/3rd at 1122 for a 1.9% gain. Last 5 trades have seen 4%, 2% and 2% winners plus 1% and .5% losers. 20 wins, 4 losses, 3 draws since 4/26/2010 System publication.

System Notes:
The System was close to issuing a buy signal last week on the second bounce from 1115ish as hourly stoch crossed up from below 50 from hourly support. One could have entered at 1122 (where we exited the last buy signal) and sold between the recent 1127 and 1131 pivots for a .5-.7% gain but I evaluated reward/risk to be too low by System rules. The same situation happened an hour before the close at 1126-1127 but reward/risk is even worse with resistance just points above.
 
Friday's intraday high caused hourly and daiy support to rise considerably. The System will issue a sell signal below 1114.63 with target of the 20dSMA and 50dSMA +/-. Currently, those key moving averages reside at 1088 to 1094 and they are rising. The 20dSMA will likely be above 1100 by end of week, so a near-term break of 1114.63 will likely lead to a test of the 1090s. Daily support will rise to 1119+ and hourly support to 1122+ if SPX gets above Friday's high before breaking 1114.63.
 
Opinion:
The sideways triangle in SPX AND the bearish 1-2-1-2 EWI count (which I pushed aside nearly 3 weeks ago due to a 3-wave S2EW count down to 1040) were nullified Friday. However, I am sticking with my large triangle B-wave count from late May. Why?
1. As I charted recently, Dow and other indexes have formed a variety of still-valid triangle formations (expanding & contracting ascending triangles and diamonds).
2. The SPX triangle is ascending on a closing basis as depicted by the thick black line on the chart below with room to run to 1140-1160.
3. Financials and banks are still lagging badly and below their 200dSMAs. I have often said they will continue to lead SPX lower like tech did in 2000-2003. However, tech has made up lost ground in recent days which is technically concerning to the bear case except for the fact that it has just touched its triangle top, potentially formed a topping candle and has taken a turn for the worst in terms of recent underlying inventory and consumer spending news not yet widely recognized in the media.
4. USD, VIX, breadth, RSI and other indicators are not confirming the new SPX highs.
5. It makes the most sense of all the zigzaggy, choppy action.
 
On my 6 month chart, I added an 8.5 day cycle that was on my 60-min chart (see the light blue arrows). It projects a multi-day turn Monday +/- 1 day and again at the end of month. My interpretation of the 1min to 5min charts would support another slight high above 1131.47. Terry Laundry at ttheory.com believes SPX could rise grudgingly for another week or two (with momentum high first) based on breadth/volume timing. McLaren believes October 1st +/- a day will be a key 90-day pivot. Hence, combined with S2EW and my cycles and trend lines, I made the dashed blue projection below. Good luck.