Wed 7/21. No active signal. Bear counts still preferred.

Update 7/22 10:40AM:
Buy signal triggered at 1081. 1/3 profit-taking recommended at 1% gain=1092. Another 1/3 profit-taking recommended at 1099...recent price pivot. By rule, you should not allow this profitable trade to turn into a loser and I recommend a stop at the trade entry even though hourly support is around 1065.
__________________________________________________________________
Update 7/22 9AM:

I had to edit my initial post. SPX did not actually close below the 20dSMA today. That makes the drop less bearish. And, based on futures, it may have just been a backtest. The System will issue a buy signal if the gap remains > .5% since the daily trend is still Neutral. Unless the signal is wrong and SPX reverses again, it looks like my preferred counts are losing odds quickly. The ABC count ending at 1110 (with X or 1 to follow) and the expanding EDT are 2 options that will probably fit my S2EW rules but I'll probably need to study things over the weekend with a fresh mind.

__________________________________________________________________


Active SPX signal: No active signal as of Wednesday night.

Hourly trend: Up with support at 1064
Daily trend: Neutral explained below
Profit targets: n/a
Trailing stop: n/a
Last signal: Loss. Sell signal at 1059 on 7/20 gap down. Stopped out at 1076 by rule. Total loss 1.6%. 15 wins, 2 losses, 3 draws since 4/26.

System Notes:
I almost called a 1/2 sell signal at 1067 today where hourly support was broken on a neutral daily trend. However, the rules do not really account for the current setup since Tuesday's gap down turned the daily trend down only to see the Marker Day high closed above which would normally turn the daily trend up. However, risk/reward was too poor with the 50dSMA near which did turn out to be resistance, and most importantly there was a small NYAD change Tuesday which by rule disallows a trend change and often leads to reversals as occurred intraday. I need to backtest similar scenarios, but I don't recall it occurring much if any in the 10 years of charts I studied. My pure guess is that the first gap down signal was the correct call even though it got stopped out, since the attempted uptrend was rejected by the breadth reversal signal confirmed by yet another close below the 20dSMA. (Edit: SPX did not close below 20dSMA which makes Wednesday's drop less bearish) Still, since the rules are not really clear for such a complex scenario, I decided to err on the side of caution and not issue a sell signal at 1067. I may add another rule that says to avoid signals when rules are unclear. LOL 
 
I will issue another signal if there is a gap beyond .5% or a close beyond the original Marker Day hi/lo at 1075/1061 with allowed risk/reward.
 
Opinion:
My 2 preferred counts are still alive. I have treated the flash crash as Minute wave 3 of Minor 1 since its inception (anybody seen that movie Inception? I'm going this weekend with my wife.) not just because of its length and strength but because RSI in the S2EW rules said it was likely. Most people quickly dismissed the flash crash as a wave 3 due to the large retrace to 1174. They are merey going by EW guidelines and "look". You must have a technical basis for wave counts and mine is RSI with only a handful of the original EW rules. It doesn't mean I'm right but that I'm limiting the thing that most people hate about EW...its subjectiveness and endless alternate counts and constantly changing counts. When SPX bounced from 1011 with confirming lower RSI, I had to consider that an ABC completed rather than a 1-2-1 but I would not make that a preference until my System confirmed a daily uptrend or breached the 1090-1110 resistance zone. Shortly after, I added the alternate LDT count using 1041 as wave 1 (not 1066 like most) only once the RSI as SPX rose to 1099 surpassed the RSI at 1131 which can happen in nested 2s and triangles. So, now I have 3 possible counts with the bearish 1-2-1-2 count unchanged since the flash crash and the latter 2 added as RSI and price unfolded. I will always judge the data as it arrives, but I've never mentioned the 1-2-1-2 count above 1110 or a 1-2 count above 1131. I just don't think it fits the S2EW rules. So far, so good. The only other count which I will contemplate if SPX were to rally back above 1100 would be an expanding LDT with wave 4 above 1131 since that may end up fitting the S2EW rules, but so far the triangle is contracting, not expanding, and expanding triangles are less common on this time level from my experience. And, RSI already went quite high at 1100 so its going to be a chore to get it much higher than that.
 
Anyway, I mentioned over the weekend that my 2 preferred counts practically required a down week this week with a test of 1011 by end of week or very early next. Of course, the 1-2-1-2 count would continue strongly downward for 1-2 weeks from there while the LDT would drop beloe 1011 but not below 979. So, even though time is not one of my S2EW rules, I will begin to lose faith in the 2 preferred counts if SPX rallies Thu/Fri even if it stays below 1100. Here is the same chart with my 2 main counts. The 3rd bullish count is not shown but 1011 would have ended an ABC in that count. Good luck.